FOG BLOG WORLD LOG: EXPLOSIVES PLACED ATOP THE ZAPPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT !

Ukraine warns Russia might attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. How worried should we be?

Russian troops have placed “objects resembling explosives” on roofs at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address Tuesday that instantly sparked concerns around the world.

“Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario,” Zelensky speculated.

But on one point, he was unequivocal: “In any case, the world sees – can’t but see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia and no one else.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long flirted with the nuclear specter since mounting his invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky has now raised the prospect that he may cause a nuclear incident not by firing warheads, but by turning the ZNPP itself into a weapon.

But what would happen if the explosives that Ukraine claims to have found were detonated? Could Zaporizhzhia become another Chernobyl? And what good, if any, would this do for Russia in its war on Ukraine?

Here’s what you need to know.

What is the current situation?

In June, Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence had “received information that Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP),” and that the alleged attack would involve “radiation leakage.”

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told state TV that the Russians had mined the Zaporizhzhia plant. “The most horrifying part is that a cooler is mined. If they disable it by blowing it up… there is a great chance that there will be significant problems.” The Kremlin denied the allegations.

Zelensky significantly escalated this rhetoric in his address on Tuesday night. “The whole world must now realize that common security depends entirely on global attention to the actions of the occupiers at the plant,” he said.

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive attempts to reclaim territory captured by Russia, including in the Zaporizhzhia region, analysts have said that Russia may be mounting a false flag operation – a military action designed to look like it was perpetrated by the opponent. That is, Russia may claim that any explosion at the power plant was the result of reckless Ukrainian shelling, rather than its own explosives.

Throughout the war, Russia has warned that Ukrainian shelling around the plant could lead to a radioactive incident.

“It’s rhetorical signaling meant to accuse Ukraine of nuclear irresponsibility, and then also to discourage Ukraine from conducting counteroffensive operations into the occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast,” Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told CNN.